Optimizing Entry into Content Creation
Recommendations for Microsoft
an EDA project in collaboration with Jesse Blant
Scenario
Microsoft is looking to compete with Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, and others. In particular, they want to start creating original content. How can we optimize their entry into the entertainment industry?
In this project, we analyze television and movie data to give Microsoft executives a few ideas on how they should proceed in their push for creative content. Through exploratory data analysis, we find useful insights that will help Microsoft succeed.
Approach
First, we had to decide on our metrics for success. Since we worked on both television and movies, and the available data for these is notably different, we ended up with two different metrics. For television, our proxy for popularity was the number of reviews on IMDB. And for movies, our proxy was box office revenue.
To compile our data, we webscraped IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes for television and Box Office Mojo and The Numbers for movies. We ended up with two separate data sets on which we could perform EDA.
Data sets
Our television data included rating scores, rating quantities, genre, and network information for 247 tv shows. And our movie data included revenue, market share, genre, distributor, and franchise information for over 10,000 movies. Since we were looking for insights into how to enter the market today, we only ended up looking at those movies and tv shows that were released from 2010 onward. We ended up with a sample of 136 tv shows and 397 movies.
Analysis — television
First, we looked at which genres performed best by taking a look at critic ratings from Rotten Tomatoes and the quantity of IMDB ratings.
We noticed an inverse relationship between the two. The genres with the highest critic ratings — documentary, comedy, and animation — had the fewest number of reviews. And the genres with the largest number of reviews — history, thriller, sci-fi, and adventure — had among the lowest critic ratings. We decided that it was more important for Microsoft’s content to lead to viewer engagement (i.e. have a higher quantity of IMDB reviews) rather than have good critic ratings.
We then wanted to see which networks had the most viewer ratings on average, to get a sense of who Microsoft may want to emulate. Surprisingly, CW came out on top.
Maybe Netflix isn’t the king of original content after all. They still perform well but we found that they had the highest volume of shows, while CW and HBO had the best viewer engagement.
Finally, we took a look at whether adapted or completely original content performed better. Again, we found a difference between critic ratings and viewer engagement.
While original programming has a higher critic rating, adaptations have about a 7% greater level of viewer engagement on average. Perhaps Microsoft should focus on adaptations and stories that viewers are already familiar with, rather than come up with completely original ideas.
Analysis — movies
Early on, we saw that blockbuster movies control a staggering amount of the market share of all movies. On average, whichever movie earns the top box office revenue for the week in which it was released will earn 70% of the revenue for all the movies that were released that week.
After taking a closer look at genre, we confirmed an assumption many of us have: that viewers want excitement!
Adrenaline-based genres like action and adventure consistently outperform other genres, notably drama, comedy, and thriller, and account for about 60% of all movie revenue. Viewers of Microsoft media would most likely want a similar level of excitement in their programming. It is also worth noting that comedy has fallen from nearly 15% to about 5% and may be a genre to avoid when first starting out.
Next, we looked at which production companies performed best, in the hopes of finding a potential partner that could help Microsoft get off the ground.
Unfortunately most of the top performers are direct competitors of Microsoft, but Sony Pictures is a top-6 production company (these companies account for about 80% of all movie revenue) that may be willing to dip a toe into online streaming.
Results
Our recommendations for Microsoft would be to adapt something into a television show in the adventure, sci-fi, thriller, or history genre and to keep an eye toward what the CW has been working on as inspiration.
As for movies, stick with action/adventure themes. No need to reinvent the wheel. And try to team up with a company like Sony, which can help you make a big splash early on.
